Blount County has maintained an annual 5-6% jump in visitor expenditures since the COVID-19 pandemic. This year, that growth may flatten.
For Blount County, where visitors generated $610.9 million in direct spending in 2024, that kind of slowdown would typically raise concern. But on the ground, tourism operators are reading the shift differently.
Local experts agree that a post-2020 visitor boom may be maturing. Spending growth has slowed but remains very much present.
What matters is who is capturing those dollars.
Growth projected to remain, just slower
Jeff Muir, director of communications for the Blount Partnership, said a wobbling national economy is partly to blame for the projected flattening in visitor expenditures. A year of tariff repercussions boosted retail prices nationwide in 2025, leading researchers with the nonpartisan Tax Foundation to estimate a $1,000 average impact on American household budgets.
Recent military action in the Middle East is also pushing gas prices higher. In the Knoxville metro area, prices are up more than $1 over last year, according to AAA reports.
“The economy and just the current situation with the government is going to play a lot into what people do,” Muir said. “I think families are being a little bit more stringent with their spending for vacations, so from the leisure side, that’s going to affect some things.”
Muir said gas prices are “a pain” but one most people deal with. The local tourism market has already survived years of gas prices above $3 — posting some of its best numbers in the meantime.
Still, the Partnership is keeping an eye on the pump.
“Even if you’ve got a 10-gallon gas tank, at $4 per gallon, that’s $40 right there,” Muir said. “If you’re driving 300 miles, that could definitely impact things, but as long as the gas prices don’t jump over $4, I think we’ll be okay.”
In Tennessee, AAA reported April 7, the current average was $3.89, but nationally the average was $4.14.
Government shutdowns — an increasingly common occurrence that has forced local governments to fund the nearby national park — are another source of uncertainty. During a record government shutdown in 2025, local governments including Blount County each contributed about $45,500 a week to keep Great Smoky Mountains National Park open.
Federal funding for the National Park Service is currently secured through the end of fiscal year 2026.
Even if visitor numbers even out, per-visitor spending has been trending up, Muir said. All that remains is the question of adapting — figuring out what visitors want and capturing as much of that traffic as possible.
Tourism spending doesn’t just fill pockets
Blount County ranked eighth in the state for visitor expenditures in 2024. Rutherford County was seventh at $787.6 million; Montgomery County, which ranked ninth, brought in $419.5 million.
Despite that ranking gap, local sales tax revenues in Blount County reported by the Tennessee Department of Revenue have remained strong.
In all, visitors to Blount County in 2024 generated $24.6 million in local tax revenue, translating to $1,063 in tax savings for each household in the county.
That tourism revenue not only supports local businesses but is a core funding source for some local governments.
Take Townsend, for example. The city, located at the gateway to Great Smoky Mountains National Park, is a top national destination for recreation. As people come from across the country to visit the county’s natural resources, many stay and spend their money in Townsend.
The city has no property tax, and according to City Manager Don Stallions, about 90% of its annual budget comes from sales, use and beer tax revenues. Of that amount, about 68% is attributable to nonresidents.
“Out of this $1.6 million, we’re getting a little over a million from people who don’t live in this town,” he said.
Economic pressure may cause spending shifts
Nate Worthington is a regional hospitality operator with a Ph.D. in strategic management.
Tourism, he said, depends on discretionary income. Should customers become more cost-conscious this season, the market may shift in a few ways.
Demand, he said, reshapes instead of disappearing entirely.
“It’s not that they’re not going to take a vacation,” he said. “It’s if they do, they’re going to eat out less, or do stuff in their Airbnb or do stuff at night. Maybe they eat out two nights instead of four nights.”
If economic pressures continue, businesses like campgrounds, quick-service restaurants and pass-through retail will likely remain strong. Businesses depending on longer stays and broader spending patterns may suffer.
Operators around Blount County have reported a rise in day-trip visitors over the last few years, indicating growing regional interest in the county’s amenities. If that trend continues, Worthington said, revenue will shift toward businesses that can capture quick, lower-cost spending — such as retail and day experiences.
Local operators see steady demand
For Kelsey Satterfield — a Townsend city commissioner who runs Smoky Waters Campground in Townsend with her parents — the seasonal outlook is optimistic. Visitor numbers at Great Smoky Mountains National Park have slipped for two consecutive years, falling below 12 million in 2025 for the first time since 2018. But for the campground, Satterfield said, bookings continue year-round, including during the off-season.
Nearby, Houston Oldham, director of operations for Oldham Hospitality, oversees a portfolio positioned to capture a wide range of visitor business. The company, started by his parents Mark and Sharon, runs the Peaceful Side, Apple Valley and Dancing Bear brands in Blount County, covering everything from lodging to coffee and dining.
To gauge the success of a coming season, Oldham eyes spring room booking rates.
“If we hit 60% booked or so for May or April, we know it’s going to be a good season,” he said.
By mid-March, bookings were nearing that threshold.
Before the pandemic, October and July were the busiest months of the year for the Oldhams. The local slow season ran from mid-November through April, with a small bump for spring break.
“Nowadays, the stretch between Memorial Day and July 4 is huge,” he said. “We have to be ready to absolutely blow it out in a 5-6 week period.”
In March, AAA reported that 31% of Tennesseans had planned some kind of spring break trip.
Oldham isn’t as worried about gas prices. He pointed out that the Smokies are one of the most driven-to destinations in the country, adding that rising oil prices typically push customers away from flight destinations and toward vacations they can reach by car. Satterfield, who oversees recreation for Townsend, said the region attracts visitors seeking experiences.
Biking, walking, fishing and enjoying the outdoors are typically low-budget activities, which insulates Townsend from greater economic pressures. Even if overnight stays suffer, she expects visitors will still drive in for day visits.
Upper- and middle-class customer spending has remained steady, Oldham said.
Visitor season is expanding
Holidays, Oldham said, generally drive business and help fill slower periods. He has seen a renewed interest in Father’s Day, and the addition of Juneteenth as a federal holiday has driven an uptick in early-summer visitors.
It’s not just holidays, either. Townsend, Oldham said, essentially has an event season, and a slate of spring and summer festivals — like the Smoky Mountain Scottish Festival and Games — draws visitors who may not otherwise come to Blount County.
Those events bulk up local revenue and form a “nice addition to what was a shoulder season.” By expanding the local busy season, festivals and other events can help steady regional hospitality income and create more consistent revenue for local business owners.
“As folks who are offering businesses open seven days a week, it’s a meaningful addition to our revenue streams,” Oldham said.
Keith Austin, chair of sponsors and marketing for the Scottish festival, said organizers are aware of the economic impact they bring to the table.
The event lasts two days, but guests often extend their stay in the area for two to five nights to explore the nearby national park.
The lower admission price, he said, is an economic driver for vendors, area restaurants and local retail.
“People come here because the gate prices aren’t expensive,” Austin said. “That gives you some extra money to be able to buy a kilt or whatever it is you want to buy.”
The biggest risk, he said, is the weather. The festival goes on rain or shine, but that doesn’t mean visitors want to stand in a thunderstorm. About 60-70% of ticket sales happen day-of, and bad weather can affect those numbers.
Blount County has a niche
Blount County’s niche has never been high-intensity tourism, Muir said. There’s a reason local marketing campaigns focus on “the peaceful side of the Smokies.” Operators capitalize on the regional identity by offering a getaway rather than mimicking the hustle and bustle of nearby regions.
The local niche, he said, is being the drive-to, experience-focused and lower-density side of the Smokies.
The challenge now is less about awareness and more about conversion. With demand stabilizing, growth will depend on extending stays, filling shoulder seasons and capturing a larger share of visitor spending locally.
The next phase of Blount County’s tourism economy won’t be defined by how many people arrive, but by how effectively local businesses turn that traffic into sustained revenue.
